The story. One month into the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, at least 60 countries have announced emergency energy measures — from releasing strategic reserves to fast-tracking alternative supply contracts. The conflict has knocked a major fossil fuel exporter partly offline, sending shockwaves through already-tight oil and gas markets.

The bigger picture. The vulnerability cuts across every side of this conflict. Iran generates 93% of its electricity from fossil fuels, with natural gas alone accounting for 340 of its 396 TWh total (Ember, 2024). Its carbon intensity — how much CO2 it takes to produce a unit of electricity — sits at 649 gCO2/kWh, 38% above the global average of 471 (Ember). Israel is similarly exposed: fossil fuels supply 86% of its power, with gas at 71% (Ember, 2024). The US, driving the campaign, still draws 57% of its electricity from fossil fuels, led by natural gas at 41% (EIA, 2025). The economies most vulnerable to supply disruption look no different — India's grid runs at 705 gCO2/kWh and China's at 555 (Ember, 2024), both well above the global baseline. The EU, at 210 gCO2/kWh (Ember, 2025), stands out for having diversified faster after earlier energy shocks.

The tension. The crisis reveals a vicious circle: the countries most dependent on fossil fuels are both the most likely to fight over them and the most vulnerable when supply breaks down. Solar and wind together produced just 2 TWh in Iran (Ember, 2024) — barely half a percent of its electricity — leaving almost no buffer when fossil infrastructure comes under fire.